Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
The betting relies on the polls, which are useless for another week or so.
I’m over here like “It’s been a day. Calm the fuck down.”
It may take a week or more to start getting meaningful polls. One very big problem is that all pollsters correct the sample to match their idea of the electorate. So if the pollster believes 15% of the electorate will be young women and in the sample only 13% are young women, it will count every young women in the sample as 15/13 of a person. So, it’s not only new polling, which is going on now, but the models themselves that change. Betting markets use these as baselines to establish odds.