TL;DR NY Times predicts trump will remain on the ballet and the ruling will likely have a very narrow basis in hopes of achieving unanimous consensus from the court.
In what way did he not do an insurrection? They’re just trying to get laws and rulings to apply to Democrats but not Republicans now?
I don’t expect them to argue against him inciting an insurrection. I think they will argue that the office of the president isn’t a civil office of the United States as laid out in the constitution, as has been a common legal argument brought forth as of late. So they will probably have to argue that the rattifiers of the ammendment were so worried about insurrectionists taking over government that they wanted to prevent it, but not enough they thought the presidency should be barred to insurrectionists.
I submit that the Presidency is an office (quotes like “I serve the office, not the man”) and the person holding that office is an officer. I get that sometimes the constitution can be unclear, but that one doesn’t seem like rocket science no matter how folks want to split words.
No my take is they will find he is being denied without due process. Which is arguable. Has he even been formally accused of insurrection? I mean I know we all saw it with our own eyes, but do we want to open the door to denying someone their right to run for office based on an opinion that what he did could be considered insurrection? Think about how many people trump would accuse of insurrection. Everyone that fought against him in what he would call his legitimate reelection.
So this tool needs to be used very cautiously because it could be turned to serve evil.
Has he even been formally accused of insurrection?
Sure: he was formally accused of insurrection in the Colorado case. The judges deliberated, found in favor of the accusations, and disqualified him from the state ballot.