• 9 Posts
  • 13 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • Everyone always quotes the growth of the S&P500, but isn’t pretty much no one 100% invested for their entire retirement in the S&P500? My 401k is in a target date 2055 and my Roth is split between FXAIX (S&P500, 55%), FSPSX (international, 20%), FSMAX (extended market, 15%), FXNAX (bonds, 10%). It’s a little conservative but not that conservative.

    Fidelity says my Roth 1Y returns are 10.8% compared to S&P 500’s 10.3%. It says my 1Y returns on my target date 2055 are 18.0%. Neither of those numbers can be accurate so it’s hard to know what to read in to them. If I try to calculate my returns in a very simple way (take current value, subtract contributions from the last 12 months, which can be easily looked up, call that number X, then find the growth rate that takes the account value I had as Nov. 1st last year and compound that at different rates until it produces X as of now - this gives an upper bound on returns, since the returns of the various money deposited throughout the year at random times is treated as not growing at all), I get 1%. And that’s 1% before inflation.

    I know the S&P500 is 10% YoY over really long time scales, and I also know that number is like +/-15% year to year. But it feels like my fund picks are pretty normal yet they’re not worth any more than what I put in to them since I started saving. Because of that, I’d have to have a 30+% savings rate in order to catch up to the “X salary by Y age” rule because the assumptions over the growth rate of the accounts are wildly off in the years since I started investing.












  • Prebuilts from brands like Ducky? mechanicalkeyboards.com

    DIY kits are generally best bought from their mfg’s - Akko, Keychron, GMMK, Keycult.

    More general retailers will have some mix of keycaps, switches, kits, maybe prebuilts and accessories - Novelkeys, Canon Keys, Mekibo, Bolsa Supply (mostly GBs), Vala Supply, KBDFans, KPRepublic (mostly caps), Kono Store, Drop (mostly caps).

    To track upcoming and live GBs, at least for keycaps and keyboards - mechgroupbuys.com. It’s pretty dead at the moment but I think the number of active group buys has tumbled recently due to several high profile scandals in the industry (namely Mechs & Co and Rama). Also several major keycap manufacturers piled up huge backlogs during the pandemic that are only just finally clearing up, namely GMK and Milkyway. All of that is causing there to be very few new GBs starting right now, and they can be kind of hard to find unless you’re already in the communities of the designer(s) or refreshing Geekhack.




  • This thread is an amusing display of sample bias. Only people that want to respond yes and brag about it bothering to respond.

    In reality only about 2/3rds of people in the US can drive stick and almost no one owns manual cars.

    I’ve never driven a manual car. I’ve had people be like “You can’t drive manual?!” and then I would respond “So are you going to teach me?” The answer is always No, of course not, not in their car (assuming they even owned a manual, which none do anymore). My parents had manual cars but sold them 10+ years before having me.

    I understand how a clutch works. It wouldn’t be difficult to learn. But what reason or motivation is there to learn when almost no cars are manual? They total something like 2% of new car sales. If you’re buying something like a 718 GT4 RS or a 911 GT3 RS for maximum driving engagement that’s great, but those cars are priced for the 1% of the 1%.

    Even if you had a fun car, which I do, the drive to work is stop-and-go, roads are full, even the fun country backroads are filled with traffic on weekends, forests are burned down, gas is eye-watteringly expensive if you have a slightly performant vehicle. The time to have fun driving cars was 40 years ago.