In the latest version I found of Nate Silver’s model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he’s basing that on.
However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris’s <5% of outcomes.
This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn’t that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.
National polling has Kamala up by +6 at best. Seems like 44%+ of
Americansthose poled seem comfortable and supportive of Trump. The fact that it’s that close at a national level, with all Haitians eating cats rhetoric, still seems insane to an outsider.Edit: Updated to appease those saying 44%+ of those poled who say they support Trump is not an accurate reflection of Americans at-large. For reference, Trump won 46.1% of the popular vote in 2016 and 46.8% of the popular vote in 2020.